Grain Market Commentary
Friday, April 30, 2021
by Jacob Christy, Senior Service provider, The Andersons
A wild week as futures and money markets converged heading into Could supply, sending previous crop futures and spreads hovering. Essentially the most lively July contract completed the week up 40c and the month up $1.28. Volatility ran rampant this week as ranges expanded and July hit its each day restrict in three of 5 classes. The query now’s can this momentum be sustained with Could futures off the speculative board and the U.S. rapidly ramping up planting?
Regardless of the restrict features right this moment July futures stay beneath contract highs. For now. This retains Tuesday’s blow-off high confirmed. Closing up restrict and synthetically 10c increased than that ought to put futures testing the contract highs come Sunday evening. However till these highs are breached Tuesdays high and subsequent reversal nonetheless look spectacular. Day by day quantity has additionally been on a gentle decline since Tuesday, indicating new bullish momentum is perhaps fading.
That being stated, the development is increased and a detailed beneath the current trendline and 12-day exponential transferring common at 626 is required to shift momentum decrease. Continuation costs blew by means of the previous 2013 hole, topped at 625, and have added over 1$ since. The cluster of previous highs from 730-800 has been the following upside goal space, which Ck21 reached on the shut right this moment, is CN21 subsequent?
Corn costs have been on an unimaginable rally this month as money markets run up previous crop, whereas mounting issues in Brazil and the necessity for an amazing U.S. rising season construct danger premiums. Count on extra volatility as we start the U.S. rising season and navigate by means of what must be torrid previous crop demand. Keep tuned.